Future challenges; Global megatrend scenario for the Arctic by Laurence Smith

Following is an extract from an article published by futurechallenges.org, painting a verbal picture of the future of the Arctic states that we might help visualize in the course of this studio;


Laurence Smith sets up a thought experiment. Taking current data on megatrends as his basis, he tries to imagine what the world could look like in 2050 while avoiding taking account of any unpredictable developments like abrupt climate change. His conclusion is that the Northern Rim Countries (Russia, United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden) will benefit from these four megatrends mainly because warming in the Arctic region will release a vast amount of natural resources (like oil and gas) for exploitation. Furthermore, the water reserves in these countries will even grow unlike those of the global south. Plus, with the exception of Russia, the population in these countries is expected to grow whereas many other industrialized countries will suffer from a sharp drop in population.


At the end of his book Smith emphasizes that the impacts of the megatrends he outlines are not unavoidable. They are influenced by societal decisions. Personal decisions, he says, can indeed alter the perceptions and decisions of others.

Too much of a good thing: The resource curse in developing countries

Senior Editor/Economist Christopher Eads from the Economist Intelligence Unit will give a lecture on Wednesday February 1 at 10 AM. The lecture is titled "Too much of a good thing: The resource curse in developing countries". The term "resource curse" refers to the paradox that countries with large natural resources tends to have low economic growth. Mr Eads will be invited to discuss this phenomena in the light of mineral extraction and also Norway's unique situation as a oil and gas exporter with stable growth and the prospects for keeping it that way. Don't miss this!

The Economist Intelligence Unit is the Economist Group's analyst department providing insight to companies, authorities and decision makers.

"Not in my backyard" - Jack Ødegård on mining

Wednesday January 18 we got a visit from Jack Ødegård, research director in Sintef. Jack gave us an introduction to the major tendencies in mining, a "boost and boom industry with growth as long term trend". Jack described a world with a growing a distance between everyday life and production. Mining in particular has become subject to a "not in my backyard" attitude. Jack also talked about the societal acceptance of mining with working conditions and environmental impact as the two main challenges. Future models of mining, he said, would need to have an environmental impact close to nothing. At the end of the talk Jack ended up discussing the lack of mining industry in Northern Norway illustrated with the map: "almost nothing here". We thank Jack for sharing his knowledge and for discussing with the students in an open minded way.

Blackboard brainstorming

The studio opened officially today, after a brainstorm for the first phase of the project, in coordination with Jack Ødegård from Sintef, followed by an improvised party in what will be our "office" for the next three months!

Study trip options

The Big Picture

quote of the day;

" We are gradually making more out of less" Jack Ødegaard, research director Sintef

Earth - understanding the big picture

Kjerstins choice of video for the opening day is a good inspiration to the first phase of the course.

Earth Timelapse Set to Sunshine Soundtrack from Farhad F on Vimeo.

Preparing for workshop with Sintef

Wednesday January 18 we will have a workshop with research director Jack Ødegaard from Sintef. Jack has led the work with the government funded report Geonor. Geonor is a collaboration between SINTEF, NORUT, NTNU and NGU (Norwegian Geological Survey). The report identifies a huge potential for mineral extraction based industries in Northern Norway, as well as possible regional development concepts involving synergies between gas and mining. Geonor envisions Kirkenes to be a Nordic Rotterdam and Hammerfest as a new industrial cluster.

We also recommend you read the SSB's report on the economies of the North, a good insight into the businesses of the circumpolar north, from traditional indigenous production to emerging industries.

Workshop with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

On the second day of our studio, Tore Tanum from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs took part in our all day workshop at AHO. With his long experience in the Ministry he took us on a travel over many years, unfolding a series of aspects related to borders and border crossing on all levels - mainly related to all kinds of cultural interchange and exchange. He presented a broad carpet of the continously evolving relationship to Russia. In the second part of the workshop he discussed the dimension of the indeginous people in the four countries, also touching on Greenland. He pointed to the upcoming conference in Alta with Indeginous TV Companies that discusses all sides of their rights to communicate in their own language, and he was also naming Karasjok as a world information bank in this media context. More to come from this interesting day with the Foreign Ministry.

Photo: Students, teachers with Tore Tanum

Introduction to course by Espen and Øystein

Espen and Øystein had a presentation on the first day of the course about the reasons for a doing a course on mining in the high north. The mining industry is in an expansive mode due to unprecedented consumption. It is forced to venture into uncharted territories such as underwater mining and the circumpolar areas. The north, and particularly northern Norway is emerging as the new frontier. The course will contribute to a needed public debate on mining as a local and global system. The second part of the presentation introduced a series of maps explaining the changes happening in the Arctic.
Lastly the presentation went through the four phases of the course and the aims for each of them.

Welcome to the Fields of Exploration

Introduction

Our world’s growing appetite and dependency on metals and minerals has led to an expanding hunt for new sources on an unprecedented scale. Continuously venturing into new and uncharted territories, the industry now has its eyes on the circumpolar areas of Norway. Promising survey results and prospects of combining local energy sources with processing and proximity to emerging trade routes makes Norway’s northern territories an increasingly attractive landscape for extracting resources. In the 2012 the Norwegian government will present its own mineral report, expected to draw up an offensive strategy for mineral extraction in the arctic areas of Norway. But mining doesn’t only denote big profits; its industry also entails large scale impacts on landscape, nature and society. What do we really know about these forces?

Through mapping of future landscapes impacted by mining the course will create an instrument for a debate on the far reaching territorial consequences of contemporary and future mining. The course will map local infrastructure, deposits, mines, and global networks of mineral distribution and processing. The studio aims to unfold the moral, legal and environmental implications of an increased extraction. The course looks for new discoveries seen through the lenses of the landscape and will provide a tool for an open debate on the new pressures in the northern territories.

Course structure

The big picture

The first phase of the course is about mapping the global system of mining. We will study the forces that drive mining, the increased resource consumption, mining’s global network and infrastructure and how this plays out in the circumpolar areas.

Output: Atlas

The perforated Landscape

The second phase will focus on mining’s impact on the landscape, study new geological surveys, modes of mining, the life cycle of a mine and mining’s environmental impacts.

Output: Catalogue

The multilayered landscape

In this phase we will examine the impact of mining on communities, the indigenous dimension, the overlapping use of land and competing activities.

Output: Magazine

Reflections

Based on the mapping and study trips students will formulate critical reflections on sub-themes identified in the course.

Output: Collection of reflections and statements in the format of texts, maps, interviews, film, photography etc.